SHFE tin pulls back under high-level pressure, with LME squeeze risk and macro factors intertwined [SMM tin midday review]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Midday price: 270,930 yuan/mt (down 1% from the previous day's settlement price).

Intraday fluctuations: Opened lower during the night session due to the pullback in LME tin prices, fluctuated downward in the morning session, reaching a low of 269,000 yuan/mt. Spot discounts widened, reflecting increased resistance from downstream buyers to high prices. LME tin contract: Overnight close: $34,680/mt, up slightly by 0.06%.

Disagreements persist in US-EU negotiations. The EU has adopted a retaliatory tariff list worth 93 billion euros. If no agreement is reached by August 7, retaliatory measures will be triggered, exacerbating volatility in the non-ferrous metals sector. Trump's pressure on the US Fed for an interest rate cut has been unsuccessful, with the probability of a September cut falling to 61%. The US dollar index has rebounded to 97.55, suppressing risk assets.

The central bank conducted 400 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operations today, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan. This marks the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, releasing liquidity.

The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to revise the "Price Law" to address "rat race" competition, but the tin industry has not yet been included in the key regulatory areas.

Downside support: SHFE tin should monitor the psychological level of 270,000 yuan. If LME tin falls below $34,500, it may accelerate the correction.